The Galanthus Notes

History of Investment Thought

Fifty papers, one argument.

From 1900 to today, investment thinking has been one long argument about a single question: where do returns come from, and what should a sensible person do about it? These fourteen chapters follow that argument in order, one paper at a time.

Each chapter has notes in plain language and at least one concrete example you can try on your own money. Chapters are written and published one at a time.

2

The birth of portfolio theory

What is risk, and how should it be managed?

Markowitz 1952 · Roy 1952 · Kelly 1956

Not yet written
3

Equilibrium and the price of risk

Which risks are rewarded, and how do we measure performance against that reward?

Sharpe 1964 · Jensen 1968 · Merton 1973 · Ross 1976

Not yet written
4

Efficient markets and their logic

Can anyone beat the market, and what would it mean if they could?

Fama 1970 · Ellis 1975 · Grossman & Stiglitz 1980

Not yet written
5

Cracks in the edifice

What did the data refuse to confirm?

Shiller 1981 · Banz 1981 · De Bondt & Thaler 1985 · Mehra & Prescott 1985 · Campbell & Shiller 1988

Not yet written
6

Behavioral finance

How do real humans decide under uncertainty, and what does it cost them?

Tversky & Kahneman 1974 · Kahneman & Tversky 1979 · Barber & Odean 2000

Not yet written
7

Limits to arbitrage

If prices are wrong, why doesn't smart money fix them?

De Long, Shleifer, Summers & Waldmann 1990 · Shleifer & Vishny 1997

Not yet written
8

Factor investing and the modern cross-section

What actually explains returns, and how much of it is real?

Fama & French 1993 · Jegadeesh & Titman 1993 · Asness, Moskowitz & Pedersen 2013 · Frazzini & Pedersen 2014 · Fama & French 2015 · Harvey, Liu & Zhu 2016 · McLean & Pontiff 2016

Not yet written
9

Expected returns and predictability

Are expected returns constant or time-varying, and can we use the variation?

Goyal & Welch 2008 · Cochrane 2011

Not yet written
10

Portfolio construction under uncertainty

How should portfolios be built when every input is estimated with error?

Michaud 1989 · Black & Litterman 1992 · Chopra & Ziemba 1993 · DeMiguel, Garlappi & Uppal 2009

Not yet written
11

Institutions and active management

What drives institutional results, and when is active management worth paying for?

Brinson, Hood & Beebower 1986 · Sharpe 1991 · Grinold 1989 · Berk & Green 2004 · Fama & French 2010

Not yet written
12

Liquidity, leverage, tails and crises

Why do markets break, and what breaks with them?

Mandelbrot 1963 · Amihud & Mendelson 1986 · Brunnermeier & Pedersen 2009

Not yet written
13

Alternatives: hedge funds, private equity, venture

What are alternative-asset returns actually made of?

Fung & Hsieh 2001 · Asness, Krail & Liew 2001 · Kaplan & Schoar 2005 · Harris, Jenkinson & Kaplan 2014 · Cochrane 2005

Not yet written
14

Long horizons and adaptive markets

How should horizon change strategy, and what kind of thing is a market, really?

Samuelson 1969 · Lo 2004

Not yet written