Before theory
What did intelligent investors believe before there was a theory of markets?
Bachelier 1900 · Cowles 1933
Read the chapter →History of Investment Thought
From 1900 to today, investment thinking has been one long argument about a single question: where do returns come from, and what should a sensible person do about it? These fourteen chapters follow that argument in order, one paper at a time.
Each chapter has notes in plain language and at least one concrete example you can try on your own money. Chapters are written and published one at a time.
What did intelligent investors believe before there was a theory of markets?
Bachelier 1900 · Cowles 1933
Read the chapter →What is risk, and how should it be managed?
Markowitz 1952 · Roy 1952 · Kelly 1956
Not yet writtenWhich risks are rewarded, and how do we measure performance against that reward?
Sharpe 1964 · Jensen 1968 · Merton 1973 · Ross 1976
Not yet writtenCan anyone beat the market, and what would it mean if they could?
Fama 1970 · Ellis 1975 · Grossman & Stiglitz 1980
Not yet writtenWhat did the data refuse to confirm?
Shiller 1981 · Banz 1981 · De Bondt & Thaler 1985 · Mehra & Prescott 1985 · Campbell & Shiller 1988
Not yet writtenHow do real humans decide under uncertainty, and what does it cost them?
Tversky & Kahneman 1974 · Kahneman & Tversky 1979 · Barber & Odean 2000
Not yet writtenIf prices are wrong, why doesn't smart money fix them?
De Long, Shleifer, Summers & Waldmann 1990 · Shleifer & Vishny 1997
Not yet writtenWhat actually explains returns, and how much of it is real?
Fama & French 1993 · Jegadeesh & Titman 1993 · Asness, Moskowitz & Pedersen 2013 · Frazzini & Pedersen 2014 · Fama & French 2015 · Harvey, Liu & Zhu 2016 · McLean & Pontiff 2016
Not yet writtenAre expected returns constant or time-varying, and can we use the variation?
Goyal & Welch 2008 · Cochrane 2011
Not yet writtenHow should portfolios be built when every input is estimated with error?
Michaud 1989 · Black & Litterman 1992 · Chopra & Ziemba 1993 · DeMiguel, Garlappi & Uppal 2009
Not yet writtenWhat drives institutional results, and when is active management worth paying for?
Brinson, Hood & Beebower 1986 · Sharpe 1991 · Grinold 1989 · Berk & Green 2004 · Fama & French 2010
Not yet writtenWhy do markets break, and what breaks with them?
Mandelbrot 1963 · Amihud & Mendelson 1986 · Brunnermeier & Pedersen 2009
Not yet writtenWhat are alternative-asset returns actually made of?
Fung & Hsieh 2001 · Asness, Krail & Liew 2001 · Kaplan & Schoar 2005 · Harris, Jenkinson & Kaplan 2014 · Cochrane 2005
Not yet writtenHow should horizon change strategy, and what kind of thing is a market, really?
Samuelson 1969 · Lo 2004
Not yet written